Penn State made a decisive early move against SMU last week, leaving its offense on the field for a pivotal 4th-and-1 attempt from its own 19-yard line. The conversion fell short, primarily because of a misplayed snap, and the Mustangs took over down 14-0 in prime position to reframe the game.

Penn State and SMU will play in the first round of the College Football Playoff on Saturday at Beaver Stadium. Here are our picks.

Of the first-round games, Penn State is the second-biggest favorite on the board. The Nittany Lions are favored by more than a touchdown (-8.5), which ranks second to Texas (-12). Although no accumulating snow is expected, temperature at kickoff could hover in the 20s with wind also concern.